And So It Is Cyprus - The Eurozone Has Found A Test Case

In the U.S., activist lawyers sift through cases that have the potential to rise to the level of effecting change on the law a la the U.S. Supreme Court.  These cases have to have the right set of facts that are specific enough while also possessing a permeating broad reach.  These cases do not always result in the activist lawyers' favor, however lessons are nonetheless learned.  Those that bear the greatest burden of the result are always the parties in the case - not the justice system, not the judges, and not the lawyers.

Cyprus is such a case and the Cypriots will see the result of being the test case for the Eurozone.

Cyprus is ideal as a Eurozone member State wind down.  Cyprus is a small country with little real effect on the Eurozone.  It has been used by Russian Oligarchs to offshore money for legal or illegal reasons.  Because of the outside interests being largely assigned to Russians, it gives the Eurozone a free pass on collateral damage.  There is, however, a certain hypocrisy on Germany's part as its banking interests were indirectly benefitted from the bailouts to Greece and other Eurozone countries.  The only difference is that Russia is not a Eurozone member state.

Cypriots are caught between two interests - one that sees it as a test case and one that sees it as a banking offshore account.  The vote against the bank tax by MP's led by a populist revolt against the bailout is in the Eurozone's best interest.  It is a way for Cypriots to publicly take responsibility for the wind down.  It also is a public example of a lack of governance because a one-time bank tax is simpler than a Faustian deal with Russia.  Any delay wreaks havoc on the local economy as bank runs destabilize Cyprus at an accelerated rate.

There is a warning for the Eurozone - a Cyprus exit may be not so discordant as is expected.  A somewhat bumpy exit for Cyprus would send a message that rather than deal with leverage inequity against Germany or France - just leave.  The fear of what a Eurozone exit and wind down would look like has been enough for member States to consent to bailout terms.  And if a member State exit is not a life threatening event, then the permanence and reliability of the Eurozone erodes for both member States and non-member States. 

This creates a greater divide between preferential treatment by non-member States for those deemed stable, stalwart Eurozone member States such as France and Germany.  The bond yields of France and Germany are an indicator of flight to safety.  A Eurozone future with a greater exaggeration of these member State differences is likely to create a generational political and economic quagmire. 

So the real test case for the Eurozone is not Cyprus, but the Eurozone's ability to keep the illusion of cooperation and common interests.

How Russia Got It So Wrong with Syria

Aside from Russia's self interest in selling weaponry to Assad's Syrian government, it is Russian Prime Minister Putin's need to play chess with the U.S.  And PM Putin is no Bobby Fischer.  Russia a la PM Putin is making geo-political decisions that are counter-productive to its clandestine mission of power blocking the U.S.  The issue of Syria is unpopular within the global community as well as the regional Arab League.  Even though China also vetoed the U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria, China is not taking advantage of photo-ops - Russia is by inserting itself as a mediator.  Usually, mediators are neutral parties or the least self interested parties.  Russia is neither.  Russia, now that it has taken a much publicized stand, has a personal stake in keeping the Assad regime in place and successful - not just a business one.

Russia is preoccupied with the U.S., but the U.S. is not preoccupied with Russia to the dismay of PM Putin because PM Putin wants Russia to be relevant.  Consider the shirtless photo-op of PM Putin on a mountainside.  At the time, it was interpreted as a response to President Obama being photographed shirtless on a beach in Hawaii.  If German Chancellor Angela Merkel responded with her own photo-op in a swimsuit enjoying the Danube, it would seem completely out of character for her, but because it was PM Putin the photo-op received more attention from comedians than politicians.  For all the meddling in sovereign affairs that the U.S. is responsible for, PM Putin asserts it is Russia that the U.S. is most active in, the latest being the alleged voter fraud, not a result of PM Putin's command and control ruling party.

Since the strategy of blaming the U.S. for all sorts of evil has not had the desired effect, PM Putin is moving in a different direction with Syria.  What is a little bloodshed, atrocities, oppression, and delusion when the real issue is the influence of the U.S. as a global power.  Often speculated about, the sunsetting provision on the empire that is the U.S. has not been written, even if there are precepts for it.  Backing the Assad regime in Syria will not hasten the end of the U.S. as a global power, it will however shine a bright light on those global players that stand as an affront to democracy or advocacy.  Not the pre-packaged U.S. sold democracy, but the kind that has its origins in the grass beneath the feet of the oppressed - a place where the U.S. and its citizens once stood. 

So PM Putin, the strategy and focus of Russia should not be the U.S. because it has led you down a garden path laced with thorns.  Fundamental to being a global leader, outside of Russia, is the consent of those that are to be led and said confidence cannot be found in a country for whom bloodshed, atrocities, oppression, and delusion are minor violations.  Such a position, immediately calls for marginalization and Russia really cannot afford to be marginalized more than it has, especially when it seeks more than anything else - legitimacy.  And so Russia and PM Putin have become the "look at me" child making a mess to get attention - Syria, of course, being the mess.  The days of Gorbachev seem ever more distant in light of recent events.